大都會區域計畫會（Metropolitan Area Planning Council）昨（15）日公佈一份報告，指大波士頓地區要保持經濟成長，勢須向外招徠年輕工作者，到2040年時，至少建造43萬5千戶新住宅單位。
大都會區域計畫會（MAPC)表示，到2030年時，大波士頓地區，每五名工作者中，就有二人退休了。這地區的經濟要成長，勢須從其他地區吸引年青工作者過來。為了因應這些年輕人，以及退休耆英的需求，到2040年時，至少得新建435,000個住宅單位。
該報告指出，如果大波士頓地區的人口地理結構，住宅趨勢，照目前的形勢繼續發展，這個地區的人口在未來三十年內，會增加6.6%，而且絕對會變得更老。65歲以上的人口，可能增加82%那麼多，而工作年齡的人口，基本上保持不變。在年輕工作者人口沒有增加下，在2010到2040年間，這地區工作機會數目的成長率會少於3%。
MAPC行政主任Marc
Draisen表示，到2030年時，本地區有一百多萬名工作者會已經退休了。要填補這些工作空缺，成長經濟，大波士頓就必須改變年輕工作者離開都會波士頓的趨勢。
如果以年輕人喜歡的住宅形式來把他們留下來，會導致一個更強壯的地區模式成功的人，這地區的人口總額可能增加12.6%。年紀在25到64歲之間的人口會增加7%，也等於為勞動力市場增加了175,000名工作者。需要的新住宅單位數目，因此也增加到435,000，
麻州住宅及經濟發展卿畢雷基（Greg Bialecki）表示，這新報告肯定了如果麻州要吸引年青人及其家庭，成長麻州人口，就需要很多新的多家庭住宅。
TO KEEP ECONOMY ON TRACK,
METRO BOSTON WILL NEED UP TO 435,000 NEW HOUSING UNITS BY 2040
Changes in population will have dramatic effects on housing needs, workforce, and economy in Greater Boston in 2040
BOSTON — Two out of five workers in Greater Boston will be retired by the year 2030, so the region must attract younger workers from elsewhere if the economy is to keep growing. Housing those young workers, in addition to the growing senior population, will require the creation of 435,000 new housing units—mostly multifamily, and mostly in urban areas—by 2040, says a new report issued by the Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC).
If current demographic and housing trends continue according to the report’s “Status Quo” scenario, the region’s population would grow 6.6% over the next three decades, and will be decidedly older. The population age 65 and older may increase 82%, but the working-age population will remain essentially unchanged. Without an influx of younger workers, the number of jobs in the region could grow by less than 1% from 2010 to 2040.
“More than a million of the region’s workers will be retired by the year 2030,” says Marc Draisen, Executive Director of MAPC. “To fill those jobs and grow the economy we need to reverse the trends that see so many young workers leaving Metro Boston.”
Indeed, attracting more young people to the region with the kinds of housing they prefer could result in a “Stronger Region” scenario with a total population increase of 12.6%. The population age 25 to 64 would increase 7%, adding 175,000 new workers to the labor force. The need for new housing will also increase, but not as rapidly: 435,000 new units needed, compared to 305,000 new units needed in the Status Quo scenario.
“This new report,” said Housing and Economic Development Secretary Greg Bialecki, “confirms the need for significant new multi-family housing if we want to attract young people and families and to grow our population,”
“Once again, MAPC is providing an incredibly valuable service to the region,” said Barry Bluestone, Professor of Political Economy, Director of the Kitty and Michael Dukakis Center for Urban and Regional Policy, and Dean in the School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs, all at Northeastern University. “Our towns and cities desperately need this information so as to be prepared for the dramatic changes in the types of housing aging Baby-Boomers and young ‘millennials’ will want and need.”
“Understanding the different levers that determine population growth—and migration in particular—is key for policymakers seeking to attract and retain young and skilled workers to the Metro Boston area,” said Alicia Sasser, Senior Economist at the New England Public Policy Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. “The MAPC has provided an invaluable service to the region[…]”
Among the report’s key findings:
· If current trends continue, a wave of Baby Boomer retirements and a weak inflow of younger workers will result in very little growth in the labor force and be a drag on the economy. If more young people are attracted and retained, however, the region’s labor force might grow by 7%.
· Even under a slow-growth Status Quo scenario, there will be demand for 305,000 new housing units from 2010 to 2040, an increase of 17%. The Stronger Region scenario would require production of 435,000 new units.
· Most of the new housing demand under either scenario will be among residents now younger than age 44. Residents now over 45 will need fewer housing units in 2020 than they do today due to outmigration and mortality.
· Multifamily housing, both for-sale and rental units, will make up at least 48% as much as 62% of demand.
· Even in suburban municipalities, demand for multifamily units will make up between 28% and 37% of total demand.
· More than half of housing demand will be in urban communities under either scenario—as much as 56% in the Stronger Region scenario.
· The number of school-age children in the region and in most municipalities peaked in 2000 and is likely to decline over the coming decades. The population aged 5 to 14 is projected to fall another 8% to 9% by 2020 and is not likely to fully rebound, even under the Stronger Region scenario.
Developed as part of MAPC’s forthcoming Regional Housing Plan for Metro Boston, these new projections will have broad utility for local housing plans and school enrollment projections, regional transportation planning efforts, and state programs focused on housing and workforce development. In 2012, the Executive Office of Housing and Economic Development adopted the Stronger Region scenario as the basis for the Commonwealth’s multifamily housing production goal of 10,000 multifamily units per year, and that office is now working to coordinate local and state policies to support the achievement of the goal.
