Youth Turnout in 2014 Preliminarily at 21.3%, Comparable to
Recent Midterm Elections
Exclusive CIRCLE Analysis Shows that At Lease
9.9 Million Young Americans, 18-29, Voted in Tuesday’s Election
Medford/Somerville, MA – Youth vote experts from the Center for
Information and Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE) –
the preeminent, non-partisan research center on youth engagement based at Tufts
University’s Jonathan M. Tisch College of Citizenship and Public Service –
today released an exclusive, preliminary youth turnout estimate showing that at
least 9.9 million young Americans (or 21.3%), voters ages 18-29, cast a ballot
in Tuesday’selections across the country.
The
number of young voters in Tuesday’s election is quite comparable to
the turnout seen in other, recent midterm elections. The estimate during
this same time for youth turnout during the 2010 midterm election was at 20.4%
of young voters (or around 9 million young people, ages 18-29).
“In terms of both youth turnout and vote choice, 2014 looks like
a typical midterm election year as far as youth are concerned. Young people
made up a similar proportion of voters in 2010,” said Peter
Levine, Associate Dean of the Tisch College. “Although this was a
wave election for the GOP, youth still tended to vote Democratic. In the
national exit poll data on House races, 18-29 year-olds preferred Democratic
candidates by 54% to 43%. In many close Senatorial and gubernatorial races,
youth preferred the Democratic candidate, and in some states, like Florida,
they were the only group that did.”
The
day-after youth turnout estimate compiled by CIRCLE’s team of youth voting
experts is based on exit polls, the number of ballots counted, and demographic
data from the US Census and is subject to change. In past years the National
Exit Polls (NEP), conducted by Edison Research, have been adjusted after an
election; for example, the estimate of the proportion of youth in the 2010
electorate was adjusted twice after the election. Additionally, in three
states, less than 95% of precincts have reported. As the number of ballots
counted increases, so will youth turnout, unless the share is adjusted
downward.
Levine
continued, “The fact is that 2008 was an exceptionally strong year
for Democrats, when youth support for Barack Obama set the all-time record in
presidential elections. The change from an extraordinary presidential year to a
rather typical midterm year hurt the Democratic Senate incumbents from the
class of 2008.”
For
a full breakdown of the youth vote turnout, as well as historical data
comparisons and further sourcing information for the data, please visit here. Further information on the youth
share of the electorate can be found, here. CIRCLE will released additional
analysis of the youth vote over the next week.
“For Republicans, the lesson is they can be competitive
among younger voters, although nationally, they still lag behind with that
group, and in some states, the Democratic tilt of young voters may pose a
problem in years to come. For Democrats, the message must be to re-engage
with young people, who had provided more support in 2008 Senate contests,” Levine
concluded.
Important narratives to consider regarding young voters include:
·
Young Voters aren’t a
Monolithic Group: Diversity in Race, Gender, Socio-economics and
Educational backgrounds. In recent years, youth political
support has differed by race, ethnicity and gender.
·
What happened in
youth-heavy districts and states? Did campaigns adequately perform the outreach
necessary to reach young voters?
·
Youth show less
interest in being affiliated with a particular political party. Although
they have a tendency to be liberal on social issues, a range of candidates in
all parties could vie for their votes. How did these tendencies play out
among campaigns in 2014?
·
Do controversial
ballot measures like marijuana legalization or same-sex marriage boost youth
voter turnout? New analysis shows that ballot measures
alone do little to impact turnout numbers amongst youth in those states.
** To speak to
CIRCLE’s youth vote experts for interviews and/or analysis throughout the week,
please contact: Kristofer Eisenla at kristofer@lunaeisenlamedia.com or 202-670-5747**
Throughout
this election season, CIRCLE’s 2014 Election Center has offered a myriad
of new products providing comprehensive analysis of young voters, both
nationally and in targeted states and congressional districts across the
country. Some of these products include: an Interactive
Congressional District Map and Interactive
State-by-State Voting Map; as well as The Youth Vote in 2014: Congressional House Races
to Watch and 2014 Midterms: Young Voters in Competitive Senate
Races.
